FTN Analytics – Texas

FTN Analytics – Texas

We often hear “this is our last election to turn things around”. This sentiment has never been more true than in this election cycle, but what does that really mean? For those of us on the Alt Right, it means that sweeping demographic changes are in the process of irreversibly destroying our country, both in guaranteeing one-party rule by a globalist regime and by displacing, often violently, its founding population. Beginning with Texas as our pilot in the series, FTN Analytics is a new endeavor by myself and Rabbi High Comma, aimed at providing an in-depth look at understanding the scope of this problem. Prepare to be rustled and be sure to bookmark this link. We are certain it will come in handy.


An oft used axiom here on the Alt-Right is that Demographics is Destiny, by which it’s meant that the people who inhabit a country are ultimately the agents for that country’s development, so whoever controls the demographics, will ultimately control the country. At no time is this sentiment more prevalent than in the presidential elections.

With racial tensions ramping up in America, people are forced to face the fact that different ethnic groups have different voting patterns, namely: All non-White US ethnic populations vote overwhelmingly for Democrats, whilst Whites are becoming increasingly polarized towards the GOP. As the demographic makeup of America changes, so too will electoral outcomes, a fact Democrats have come to rely on (electing themselves a new people), and a fact the GOP establishment futilely tried to come to terms with at the start of the primaries, with establishment candidates either being minorities or tripping over themselves trying to show the new arrivals that Republicans can be a party for non-whites too.

As Trump took the nomination out from under their noses, dethroned establishment pundits started gleefully blaming him for the declining strength of red bastions, either deliberately ignoring the well-known ethnic bias of minority voters, or heralding the decline as a just punishment for racism (crime-think).

Most recently, GOP hegemony over Texas electoral politics has been called into question, with head cuck, and Big Boy Hamburgers mascot, Erik Erickson gleefully asking himself and his readers whether Trump will lose the state. Whilst even a cursory glance will tell you that this is an obvious falsehood, it did raise some interesting questions for race realists: Knowing, as we do, that demographics is destiny, what is the nature and state of demographic transformation in Texas, and how will this affect future elections?

We here at Fash the Nation took it upon ourselves to try and give some satisfactory answers to that question, and so we dug deep into the demographic and political records of the state and created a predictive model for Texas, both in terms of racial makeup as well as future political implications.



 Long considered a red stronghold due to its unbroken streak from 1980 (nine elections), Texas has proudly yielded up its 38 electoral votes for the implicit White party since Reagan. Unfortunately, due to its proximity to Mexico, and its relatively robust economy, the state is facing tremendous demographic pressure. The end of GOP certainty is fast approaching. What follows is a sobering look at the demographic past, present and future of the state.



 Originally belonging to Mexico, and being located on the border ever since, some browning was impossible to avoid, and so Texas has a long history of dealing with the Hispanic problem. However, the dynamic changed dramatically when the infamous Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965, also known as the Hart-Celler act, was passed. Ever since then, the white majority in the state has been undergoing a catastrophic reduction:



Fig 1. So Long White Majority.


Whilst cuckservatives might feel that a drop from 70 to 40 percent whites in 45 years is a small price to pay for affordable chalupas, a demographic decline like this is nothing short of replacement level. The replacement has been driven almost exclusively by Hispanics migrating (both legally and illegally) from Mexico and Central America, but in more recent years, Orientals have started becoming a sizable proportion too.

While plenty disheartening, it behooves us to bear in mind that whilst the proportion of whites have declined drastically, there hasn’t been a decrease in the white population. On the contrary, the white population has increased from 7.7 to a healthy 11.8 million in the same time span. This fact also underpins just how vast of a Hispanic population increase Texas experienced, in this same period, Hispanics have grown from just 2.2 to 11.5 million. A rate 2.3 times higher than whites.



Fig 2. Just a reminder that your taxes pay for this.



 Which leads us into the present. As you read this, Hispanics have, or are just about to, replace whites as the plural ethnicity of the state for the second time in history. This marks a very real end of the nice White state Texas once was, and cements a future in which mandatory Spanish classes, drugs and other gang related crime is all but a certainty. Oh, and it spells the end of the red state too, but we’ll get to that.



It doesn’t take a genius to predict which way Texas is going, the more pertinent question is how fast it’ll get there. Any demographic prediction is going to be plagued with uncertainty, as future policies like immigration and law enforcement as well as other factors like economic instability and even racial animosity is going to have a huge impact on the outcome.

In order to calibrate for this, three different prediction models were used. The first, dubbed “Low” represents a future in which the right candidate wins and a new dawn of immigration reform passes, giving Texas zero net migration.

The second, dubbed “Medium”, assumes a growth rate equal to ½ of the growth rate Texas experienced between 2000 and 2010, is a stand in for a “responsible” immigration reform which buys whites a short-lived stay of execution.

The third, “High”, is what happens if no reform is passed. In other words, an unmitigated Clinton Scenario where the growth continues with the same intensity as it did between 2000 and 2010. The result:


Fig 3. They absolutely positively have to go back.



Fig 4. No seriously, you think your recent health insurance hikes were bad?



Fig 5. No matter which scenario is more accurate, it’s not looking good.


To summarize the demographic situation in Texas, here’s how that replacement is going to look on a county level:



As the demographic collapses, so too does the red stronghold, and politically speaking this is a huge deal. Texas accounts for 38 (7%) of the 538 electoral college votes, so once this state is gone, so too is the GOPs road to the presidency. Unfortunately for the GOP, the vote is becoming increasingly tied to race. This analysis looked at the correlation between the non-white proportion in counties and the proportion of democratic voters, and it’s clearly trending upwards:


Fig 6. Correlation between non-whites and Democratic votes by election.



Texas recent political past has been interesting, the early electoral outcomes swing heavily because of candidates either being from the state, as is the case of the Bush family who’ve been in four elections in the last forty years, or because of their ethnic background, such as Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, Americas first and second black presidents. Even so, the election has gone for the republican candidate the last nine times, mostly attributable to a solid white voter consciousness. What we do see, is that voters are more racially divided than ever, with the last election results scoring a high correlation between race and outcome. What this means is a solidification in the voting patterns, which makes future elections more predictable.



Fig 7. A strong correlation.



In present day America, we’re mere weeks away from the next election, and it’s fair to assume that this race will be no less racially charged than the previous one, in fact probably more so. How this will influence Trumps run is uncertain, the nonwhite and white vote both hovered around 70 percent for both parties . if anything it’s possible that his share of the vote will go up because of the way he has energized the white base with talks of immigration reform.

Furthermore, it is my belief that the blatant anti-white propaganda in the media, combined with the uptick in extreme racial violence will drive up the white voter percent in favor of the Trump led GOP. Even if the opposite happens, historical data gives Trump a solid advantage on Clinton, so he has to lose a lot of support in order to lose the state:


Fig 8. The Republican vote is in a very slow decline.

However, there is a demographic bomb about to go off in Texas, and the cuckservatives won’t know what hit them.



 To predict the Texas vote into the future, we’ve looked at voter eligibility, demographics trends and party bias to try and determine the political impact of white contra non-white voters. To be clear, the analysis is predicated on demographic factors, turnout and racial block voting alone, and although these factors have proven remarkably stable, the model does not account for the huge variability caused by the party candidates and as such it does not claim to be accurate in detail, but rather in the big picture.

Furthermore, the analysis is based on the “Medium” scenario with a growth equal to 0.5 of the growth between 2000 and 2010, and so it’s a moderate (optimistic) prediction if anything. The most striking find when crunching the numbers is just how low the political impact of non-whites in Texas is. The net impact of the non-white vote equals to about 6.5% of the total non-white population in this state, or one for every fifteen people. Meanwhile, the impact for Whites are about 19.7%, or roughly one in five. There are several reasons for this: Because of a high number of illegal aliens as well as a much younger population, the total number of eligible voters is much lower than with Whites.

Moreover, out of the eligible voters, the turnout is absolutely abysmal. Factor in that 30% of them will vote Republican and you arrive at a number that is laughably low. When you compare the two, it becomes clear that you need roughly three times as many non-whites as whites to reliably flip a state. Unfortunately, the sheer numbers of non-whites are about to make up for that, and the population of anchor babies is also aging, meaning that the ratio is going to change in their favor over the next elections.

Here’s what that’s going to look like:


To summarize:

If extreme measures aren’t taken, 2024 will be extremely contested, and 2028 will have flipped Texas irrevocably blue.

If any forms of amnesty/ “pathway to citizenship” passes its over for the GOP.

If a new “Operation Wetback” deportation program is not initiated in the next Presidential term, its over for the GOP.

If the GOP fails to make racially-explicit appeals to its White base, its over for the GOP.



2016 is a watershed year for Texas, the ethnic plurality is about to flip from White to Hispanic, and racial conflict is heating up bigtime. Unless steps are taken, the new White minority will continue its demographic plunge into a society that will become increasingly corrupt, increasingly expensive to run and increasingly hostile to them. Downslope from this a guaranteed political shift from Red to Blue in three elections, cementing the inevitable conflict as dispossessed whites will have to resort to the “continuation of politics by other means”. Anything less than a complete reversal of the flow of immigrants will guarantee this outcome and it falls to anyone with a conscience to prevent this from happening. The time to stand idly by is over.


– Lauritz Von Guildhausen and Rabbi High Comma.


Related Posts