The Caravan: A By-the-Numbers Analysis

If the caravan is not stopped, it will lead to a never-ending stream of Third World invaders.

The Caravan: A By-the-Numbers Analysis

by Ash


According to El Universal, a Mexican newspaper, the current caravan has swelled to 14,000 people as of Oct. 22, 2018. The last caravan, while largely rebuked, began to squeeze members across the border in April 2018, having consisted of approximately 1500 members at its peak. This is a very conservative estimate with many other estimates showing up to 4000 members.

President Trump has taken measures to prevent the caravan from penetrating the border. He needs to be certain that they work, because if the caravan is allowed through, it will create chaos.

By not stopping the caravan, it will encourage more to come. We have had two in the past eight months. Furthermore, they are growing at an alarming rate. Assuming a low case logarithmic scale projection (i.e. the growth is high now but will taper off) we will see 421,099 caravan migrants in our nation within the next 12 years at the current pace. In the middle case, assuming a linear continuance of this increase, we will see 1.94 million in the next 12 years. The upper case, exponential increase, fits the observations best so far, however if the caravans continue at that pace, we will literally import the entirety of the third world within our shores within the next 12 years. Frightening, but not realistic.


If the caravan is not strongly rebuked, my conservative case projection here is 569,721 caravan invaders in the next 12 years, based on the methodology described above. The average household headed by a central American immigrant costs $8,251, according to a cis.org study. Assuming half of the 569,721 immigrants represent a household (this figure is somewhat inflated by the overall young age but also somewhat depressed by the large number of 15-18 year old children who will become their own head of household during the discussed time frame), we see an average yearly bill of approximately $2.35 billion. Over the 12 year time frame analyzed, the  cost adds up to 28.2 billion dollars. In other words, the wall pays for itself based on caravan costs alone. These costs are in addition to the other costs we are known to incur as a result of immigration.

This does not even begin to address the problem of chain migration which could inflate these numbers many times over. It’s safe to say that allowing this caravan across the border would be a disaster for this country.

 

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