FTN 2018 Midterm Election Guide: House Data

As Election Day draws near, polling continues to swing in favor of the GOP’s chances for maintaining a House majority.

FTN 2018 Midterm Election Guide: House Data

Continuing FTN’s 2018 midterm election coverage, we take a look at the data surrounding races for the House of Representatives.


Unlike in the Senate race, Republicans chances in the House race have not been looking too optimistic. As of writing this, FiveThirtyEight projects the GOP has having a 1 in 7 chance of keeping the House.

However, in the weeks leading up to Election Day, Republicans have seen polling shift in their favor. This is due in part to the momentum from the Kavanaugh hearing, as well as a home-stretch push by President Trump on campaign trail. While once bleak, the GOP’s chances in the House race now appear to be on the up-and-up.


The Battlegrounds

The battleground districts in the race for the House include Democratic districts which Trump won in 2016, many of which are in the Midwest and other rural areas of the Rust Belt.

Democrats have a solid hold on 189 districts with seventeen likely Democratic districts, while Republicans lay solid claim to 144 districts with 45 likely Republican districts. In between, there are forty districts in play, including sixteen true toss-ups.

Some battleground districts targeted by the GOP include: CA-10, CA-25, CA-45, IL-12, KS-02, ME-02, MI-08, NJ-07, NM-02, OH-01, OH-12, PA-01, TX-07, TX-23, TX-32, VA-02, VA-07, and WV-03.

These are all toss-up districts which Republicans have a chance of winning.

Republican Advantages

Nate Silver has warned that a single upset in the House race could determine which party controls Congress after the midterms. This is due to a metric called the tipping-point index, which measures how decisive a race will be in the overall outcome of the midterm elections.

Republicans are also aided by lower turnout in Democratic districts and states, as I previously mentioned in the preliminary data.

RealClearPolitics has also outlined a scenario in which the math plays out in favor of the GOP and the Republicans are able to maintain their majority in the House.


For House Republicans, the future is looking brighter every day as we near the election. The data suggests that the “blue wave” may not amount to much at all. With that being said, the House is still very much in play for the GOP.

On Tuesday, November 6th, remember to get out and VOTE!


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