FTN 2018 Midterm Election Guide: Senate Predictions and Analysis

FTN 2018 Midterm Election Guide: Senate Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to Fash the Nation’s official 2018 midterm election guide. The FTN team brings you accurate, in depth coverage you won’t find anywhere else. Don’t believe the biased left-wing pollsters and predictors? FTN has hand-picked the most important races across the country to give you analysis and predictions you can trust. Enjoy, and remember to go vote on November 6!

Today we take a look at the Senate races. Remember to check out the deep dive by McFeels and Ethnarch for even more information on the Senate races.

Arizona

This race, between Democrat Rep. Kyrsten Sinema and Republican Rep. Martha McSally, is for prominent Republican cuck Jeff Flake’s old seat. Military veteran McSally, even being a relatively moderate conservative, is a vast improvement over the Republican saboteur Flake.

In an increasingly far-left party, Sinema stands out as extreme leftist candidate. She has been forced to run to the center in the typically conservative state, but her past comments show her true position. Sinema has called Arizona “the meth lab of Democracy,” has called housewives “leeches,” and has said she has no issue with Americans joining the Taliban.

This race has been rated as a tossup by the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections has it as tilt Democratic. Due to Sinema’s far-left positions, slightly skewed polls, and Arizona’s status as a reliably conservative state, we think McSally has the advantage.

FTN Prediction: Lean Republican

Click here for our full coverage of the Arizona Senate race.

Florida

Democrat incumbent Bill Nelson faces former Republican governor of Florida, Rick Scott, in Florida. Nelson supports a border fence, but no wall. He also supports a path to citizenship for illegal aliens and a generous guest worker program for foreigners to work in Florida’s hospitality industry.

Scott, leaving his post as governor due to term limits, is in favor of most of Trump’s immigration agenda, including the wall, strict deportation enforcement, and national E-Verify. However, Scott is in favor of DACA and the guest worker program. His reliance on Florida’s reliably anti-leftist Cuban vote makes it politically difficult for him to go too far right on immigration.

Our favorite poll on this race (largest sample size, smallest margin of error) is a St. Pete’s poll which showed Scott up by one. Senior FTN political analyst, Ethnarch, thinks he is up by 2-3 points.

FTN Prediction: Lean Republican

 

Indiana

This race pits incumbent Democrat Joe Donnelly against Republican challenger Mike Braun. Donnelly is an anomaly in a deep red state with a Republican governor, state House, and state Senate. He has run hard to the center-right, and avoided association with the rest of the Democratic Party when possible. Donnelly supports partial wall funding, stopping sanctuary cities, and has even touted his relationship with the president. However, he also supports the catch and release loophole and has voted against ICE raids.

Mike Braun, who won his primary by 11 points as a dark horse candidate, is a businessman turned politician who is endorsed by Trump. He is a reliable vote on Trump’s agenda, except on trade, where he has reservations on US tariffs. Recent polling shows Braun opening up a lead down the stretch. A libertarian candidate may siphon a few points from Braun, hurting his chances. If the libertarian can be held under 4%, Braun looks strong.

Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato all rate this race as a tossup. We think Braun has a slight edge.

FTN Prediction: Tilt Republican

Click here for our full coverage of the Indiana Senate race.

Mississippi

Mississippi features a jungle primary race, an open primary in which party affiliation is not on the ballot. If no candidate reaches 50%, there will be a runoff on November 27th to determine the winner. The three major candidates are incumbent Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith, Democrat Mike Espy, and Republican Chris McDaniel.

Hyde-Smith was not elected, but appointed after Thad Cochran resigned on April 1, 2018. She is a former blue dog Democrat who switched parties. She is a reliable Trump vote, opposed to illegal immigration and DACA, and in favor of a wall.

Espy is a former congressman and was the first Black Secretary of Agriculture during the Clinton administration. He was later indicted on federal corruption and bribery charges.
McDaniel is a dark horse, anti-establishment candidate who would be the best fit the new Republican Congress. He recently received an infusion of cash from the Mercer family, and could have a shot in a runoff. McDaniel is decidedly further to the right than the former Democrat Hyde-Smith.

Hyde-Smith is polling at 38%, Espy at 29%, and McDaniel at 15%, meaning the Republicans should have well over 50% support in a runoff.

FTN Prediction: Likely Republican

 

Missouri

Claire McCaskill, the Democrat incumbent, has had a rough go recently. A Project Veritas video revealed that her private positions on immigration and the Second Amendment differ wildly from her public positions—McCaskill actually supports unlimited immigration and curtailing the right to bear arms. McCaskill has also voted for funding sanctuary cities, and voted against confirming Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, the move that has hurt her the worst.

Her opponent is Republican Attorney General Josh Hawley. He is a solid supporter of the Trump agenda, and is endorsed by the president. The race was extremely tight before the Kavanaugh vote, but since then Hawley has opened up a lead in the polls.

Missouri is a deep red state that was won by Trump in 2016. Though McCaskill tries to put on a moderate veneer, it is clear she sides with the far-left Democrats on the important issues. Missouri voters are starting to notice. The mainstream outlets rate this as a pure tossup. We think Hawley has a slight advantage.

FTN Prediction: Tilt Republican

 

Montana

Montana features yet another Democrat incumbent running to the center, Jon Tester. A senator since 2007, Tester has touted his White working-class credentials by focusing on his Montana roots, his farm, and an endorsement from Joe Biden.

His opponent, Matt Rosendale, is a rancher with endorsements from Trump, Pence, and Trump Jr. Trump has been campaigning hard for Rosendale, holding three rallies in the state. As far as we can tell, Rosendale is not Jewish.

Trump has inserted himself into this race so much in large part due to animus against Tester for sabotaging his Veteran Affairs Secretary pick, Ronny Jackson. The president’s work has made a difference, and may even propel Rosendale to victory. The libertarian candidate has also dropped out, endorsing Rosendale and giving him a slight boost.

The polls show Tester at +4. Inside Elections and Sabato’s Crystal Ball are picking Tester to win. We think Rosendale has a 50/50 shot.

FTN Prediction: Tossup

 

Nevada

This is the only Senate race featuring a Republican incumbent in a state that Hillary Clinton won in 2016. Republican incumbent Dean Heller is a former Never-Trump guy who has bent the knee to a significant degree. He has voted against sanctuary cities and DACA amnesty, and has stated positions against chain migration and birthright citizenship. However, Heller still only supports a fence along the southern border, and supports guest worker visas for Nevada’s casinos.

He is running against (((Jackie Rosen))). Rosen is a typical Democrat—for open borders, against the Second Amendment, and ready to obstruct the president at every turn. She supports the USA Act, which gives DACA for “border security.” Rosen is also president of her synagogue.

The latest polls show Heller with an advantage within the margin of error. The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal ball call it tossup, while Inside Elections has it at tilt Democrat. We like Heller’s chances slightly more than they do.

FTN Prediction: Tilt Republican

 

North Dakota

Democrat incumbent Heidi Heitkamp has shot down in the polls since voting no on Kavanaugh. Endorsements from the National Border Patrol Council and Joe Biden aren’t enough to make up the difference.

Her opponent, Kevin Kramer, has an endorsement from Trump, and is a solid Trump Republican. Polls show him up by 12 points. The Democrats pulled funding from Heitkamp a month ago, making Kramer the clear favorite.

FTN Prediction: Likely Republican

 

Tennessee

Current Tennessee Senator Bob Corker is retiring after this year because he can no longer get elected in the new Republican Party. Replacing him for the Republicans is Marsha Blackburn, a standard conservative who backs Trump on most issues. The Kavanaugh confirmation battle helped the Republicans here, as well as strong support for the Second Amendment.

The Democrat nominee is former Governor Phil Bredesen. He is a centrist Democrat with unorthodox positions, such as eliminating the state income tax. His biggest flaw is support for a path to legalization for DACA recipients. Taylor Swift’s endorsement will not play a factor.

Tennessee has a Republican governor, state Senate, and state House, and Blackburn has been pulling away in the polls recently.

FTN Prediction: Lean Republican

Click here for our full coverage of the Tennessee Senate race

West Virginia

Incumbent Joe Manchin is the most conservative Democratic lawmaker in the Senate. Manchin is a throwback White Democrat with working-class bonafides: a United Mineworkers endorsement and an AFLCIO endorsement. Manchin was the lone Democrat to vote for the Kavanaugh confirmation. His most liberal position is on gun control: Manchin votes with the Democrats and even sponsored gun control legislation. He received a D rating from the NRA.

His opponent is Republican Attorney General Patrick Morrissey. He has endorsements from Trump, Rand Paul, and the NRA. The NRA has given Morrissey an A+ rating, and released this ad endorsing him:

Morrissey would be an extremely reliable vote for Trump in the Senate.

Ultimately, West Virginia, the second Whitest state in the country, will become a Republican state, as the Democratic Party goes increasingly anti-White. But, don’t be surprised if it doesn’t happen this year. Polls have Manchin up an average of almost 9 points, and there is reason to believe that the conservative state is mostly satisfied with his job performance.

FTN Prediction: Lean Democrat

 

Jay Lorenz
ADMINISTRATOR
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