One thing that’s important to keep in mind as events unfold is that while we can derive some clear narratives, there’s nobody steering the entire train wreck. It’s just a collection of interests and actors, some of which always prevail, but never act in long-term concert even though it would be better for them to do so.
Case in point, the Democrats. With the Republicans refusing to follow a winning script, national power has become theirs to lose. It’s been that way since Bush was leaving office. They could’ve been winning consistently against a loser’s game plan for a decade by now with no end in sight.
However, there’s no boss who controls the party to orchestrate the succession of candidates based on what makes sense for the organization. There’s simply a series of people acting on their own ambitions and an MSM that supports them, but still serves as a circus that can often be counterproductive.
2008 should’ve been “her turn.” Clinton could’ve won because in comparison to the rabid McCain, she would’ve appeared like the peace candidate despite her actual record. But, Obama had a high time preference. His presidency couldn’t be placed in a manner that was more productive over the long term. That’s proven to be a disaster.
Obama would be headed for a second term next year. Trump the opportunist popped up because “Hope and Change” sells, but only once. By 2016, Hillary was the worst possible candidate. She introduced astounding new precedents for bad. Trump smelled the blood in the water.
No organization wants to be represented by someone in poor health surrounded by obvious criminality and shameless graft. Her candidacy was awful for the party but it had no ability to keep her away. Much of this was for financial reasons. In addition to losing the election, the Democrats are paying a steep price in credibility with the Russian hacking hoax her campaign introduced.
The appropriate candidate in 2016 was Joe Biden. If he’d been able to come out early with the full support of Obama, Trump might not have seen an opening to run in the first place. By this time, Biden would be sailing towards reelection. With economy appearing decent and the (((media))) on his side, an incumbent gets another term. The only debates he’d need to do would be against a single Republican.
2024 demographics and Republican refusal to reorient towards White interests would mean the presidency would be as Democratic from now on as the governorship of California. Instead, primary candidates are looking to eat each other alive from identity angles. Kamala Harris attacked Biden as an old White racist in the debates, which appears to be siphoning off a significant amount of his support. She might overtake him as the primary wears on.
Instead of the candidate most likely to beat Trump in the general election by recapturing the Obama coalition, which has already punched a winning ticket with his name on it twice, the party could easily get stuck backing yet another loser who will alienate White swing voters.
This is looking very positive for Trump, whose main liability would only be his empty promises. If he’s reelected, he could easily deliver the House back into Republican hands. The Democrats would be shut out completely for another two years.
There’s talk of Biden choosing Harris as his VP if he can make it through the primaries. That’s probably the best combination for the Democrats. However, it will make things much more difficult for both of them now that she has condemned him for being the worst thing anyone could possibly be to base.
The Democrats desperately want Trump gone but there’s no mechanism to make it happen despite the clear equation for doing so quite easily. Instead, they’re all acting as their own worst enemies in the service of the Orange Man they hate so very much.