The current year is coming to a close, which means the presidential election cycle has been in full swing for the last nine months. The Democratic primary field will begin to shrink as actual voting nears. Democrats will cast the first votes of the 2020 presidential election on February 3rd at the Iowa Caucuses.
Based on the currently available data, I believe that only five candidates are capable of winning the nomination. This article takes a look at those Democratic candidates who remain positioned to emerge from the large primary field as the Democratic Party’s nominee for the general election.
5. Kamala Harris
From the initial onset of the Democratic primary race, I believed the party-establishment favored Kamala Harris. We can observe her insider ties by pointing out her decision to stack her high-profile campaign staff with veteran advisors to Hillary or Obama. Earlier this year, Harris sat comfortably in second place at around 15% in the national polling averages, just ahead of Sanders and Warren. As the summer comes to a close, Harris has suffered a severe plunge to single digits in her national polling average, as well as in critical early-voting state polls. Could some of her polling drop be attributed to Tulsi Gabbard exposing Harris’s hypocrisy during one of the Democratic debates? Anecdotally, I can report that many black people are distrustful of Harris, especially after this vulnerable moment in the debates. At this point, Harris’s lead appears to have dwindled quite low.
4. Pete Buttigieg
Mayor Pete has enjoyed a steady incline in the polls over the last half of the summer, and he continues to pull in large sums each fundraising quarter. Despite his recent good numbers in fundraising and polling, I still believe that a moderate, white male like Pete Buttigieg has a relatively low chance of winning the nomination.
3. Bernie Sanders
Bernie Sanders has maintained favorable polling numbers since the beginning of the year. Additionally, the third quarter of campaign fundraising was Bernie’s most successful yet, pulling in over $25 million. Despite consistently hit polling and fundraising numbers to remain in the top tier of candidates, his recent health issues have made his standing in the race more vulnerable. However, it is notable that Sanders (and Warren) have beaten out supposed frontrunner Joe Biden in fundraising. His diminished ability to win the primary is visible through polling results, which show that Biden supporters have ditched Sanders for Warren as their second choice. I believe that Bernie will eventually be forced out of the race and pressured into contributing his campaign fundraising to the party’s nominee, just like what happened in the 2016 Democratic primary.
2. Joe Biden
Biden may be currently hailed the “frontrunner” of the primary race, but I don’t expect him to win the party’s nomination. I believe that his frontrunner status can be attributed to the big gap in name recognition that the former Vice President enjoys over the other candidates in the race. There’s a lot of doubt about how he will fare. Biden’s campaign trailed both Sanders and Buttigieg in fundraising hauls during the third quarter, calling his chance of winning into question. Furthermore, Biden’s campaign is subject to increasing pressure from both Warren on his left and Trump on his right. However, some polling does indicate that Biden maintains a firm grasp on white working-class voters in crucial swing states. Furthermore, it appears that Biden may not have lost ground to Warren’s recent surge in the polls. Overall, I think the grassroots base of the Democratic Party will soundly reject Joe Biden at the polls next year.
1. Elizabeth Warren
At this time, I believe that Warren will most likely win the nomination in this primary race. Warren has steadily surged in the polls in recent weeks, raising her into frontrunner territory. Not only has her national polling average increased, but her polling numbers have also risen in crucial early voting states. Additionally, her third-quarter fundraising haul was quite impressive. Another piece of evidence to support Warren’s likely primary victory is her uptick in media coverage, especially from Fox News.
Overall, I believe that Elizabeth Warren is currently the most likely candidate to win the Democratic primary race. However, there is still a lot of time left in the primary election.